- “There are many historical examples which demonstrate military evasion of civilian control over military operations. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the U.S. Navy ran its blockade according to its traditional methods, disregarding President Kennedy’s instruction… American civilian policymakers may have the least influence over the most escalatory operations.” (32)
Lesson: Be wary in international crises: civilian policymakers may lack full control over the military.
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- “Inadvertent escalation may occur because offensive and defensive actions are frequently indistinguishable. The defensive needs of attack submarines, for example, may cause them to destroy Soviet strategic submarines – acts likely to be interpreted by the Soviet Union as very offensive. In more general terms, measures that one state takes to defend itself may seem offensive to the adversary against whom they are directed. The defender may have no choice but to take such actions, even if he understands that they threaten assets that the adversary values highly. Even more dangerous, however, is that the defender frequently does not understand how threatening his behavior, though defensively motivated, may seem to the other side. Thus, when the adversary reacts in a violent or escalatory fashion, the defender is surprised, and may respond even more extremely. This is one way that escalation spirals start.”
Lesson: Ambiguities of offensive and defensive actions could lead to inadvertent escalation to nuclear war.
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- “Inadvertent escalation may also result from the extreme difficulty of gathering and understanding the most relevant information about a war in progress and using it to control and orchestrate the war… The disarray of command, control, communications, and intelligence, often called the “fog of war” would assume global proportions in an East-West war… During the Cuban Missile Crisis, orders to cease U2 flights near the Soviet border were either not received or were ignored; Soviet detection of these flights hindered the negotiations to end the crisis… In the nuclear age, the likelihood of inadvertent escalation might be increased because misperceptions, misunderstandings, poor communications, and unauthorized or unrestrained offensive operations could reduce civilian control of the war and may precipitate unexpected but powerful escalatory pressures.”
Lesson: Difficulties raised by the “fog of war” can result in inadvertent escalation to nuclear war.
Barry R. Posen, “Inadvertent Nuclear War?: Escalation and NATO’s Northern Flank”, International Security, Vol. 7, No. 2 (Autumn, 1982), pp. 28-54.
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