- “What Kennedy did not realize was that more than 100 nuclear warheads had already been deployed on Cuban soil. It was unknown to him that Soviet commanders were delegated the authority to use these missiles on their own judgment. Also unknown to him was that the three commanding officers on one Soviet submarine were split two-to-one over whether to launch a nuclear-tipped torpedo against the United States. Today these unknowns are known. But what is still unacknowledged is that if sheer luck had not prevailed during this moment of truth, the statesmanship of President Kennedy would not have been enough to save the world.”
Lesson: The world got lucky during the Missile Crisis. Kennedy’s statesmanship worked because a few lucky events prevented an accidental start to World War III.
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- “As the world teetered on the brink of nuclear catastrophe, the two nations agreed to add a softer, more cooperative option to the toolbox. Up to that moment in late October ’62, it had contained only hard-hitting tools: a series of Cold War confrontations, hundreds of nuclear-weapon tests and tens of thousands of nuclear weapons. These tools were not part of the solution; they were part of the problem.”
Lesson: States must engage diplomatically with each other. Other means of engagement, such as geopolitical brinksmanship, only exacerbate tensions.
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- “Fifty years and 1,500 tests later, with three times more nuclear warheads and three times more nuclear-armed states, the world is still waiting to close the door on nuclear testing through the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. It is still waiting for China, Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and the United States to legally enact the CTBT….We simply cannot afford to rely on luck to rescue the world. We must utilize all of the cooperative tools at our disposal to avoid conflict and achieve nuclear disarmament. And that includes bringing the CTBT into force.”
Lesson: In order to avoid further nuclear confrontations, we must engage in nuclear diplomacy. Excellent step in this direction: enacting the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
Source: Tibor Tóth, “A nuclear world,” Chicago Tribune, October 26, 2012.